4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CHI 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-42-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model