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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 74

Chicago Bears 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-10-T.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model