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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP