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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to CHI 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP