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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 65

Chicago Bears 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model