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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 65

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to SEA 17, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at SEA 17 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model