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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 87

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to CHI 31, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.27 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 87, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP