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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 65

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to SEA 16, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.36 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model