Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(7:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.55 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model