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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2024-12-29 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

TEN
49.8%
JAX
50.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Mac Jones (JAX): -0.052 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

TEN

Nick Folk K Out Abdomen
Dillon Radunz T Out Shoulder
Otis Reese LB Out Ankle
Colton Dowell WR Out Knee
Tyler Boyd WR Questionable Foot
Amani Hooker S Questionable Shoulder
Bryce Oliver WR Questionable Knee
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Walker Little T Out Ankle
Ventrell Miller LB Out Ankle
Darnell Savage S Out Concussion
Yasir Abdullah LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 13
–
JAX 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:50 FG JAX (10:50) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 09:06 TD JAX (9:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 11-P.Washington for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 9
  • Q2 02:06 FG JAX (2:06) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 0 – JAX 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 7-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – JAX 13
  • Q3 06:57 TD TEN (6:57) 11-M.Rudolph pass short left to 84-N.Vannett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – JAX 13
  • Q4 07:11 TD JAX (7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – JAX 19
  • Q4 02:05 FG TEN (2:05) 7-M.Wright 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 13 – JAX 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 75%

    (10:50) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 43%

    (7:52) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to JAX 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-J.Hardee.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to TEN 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (2:06) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 32%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short right to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 37 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 89%

    (:03) 7-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 26 for 9 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (2:05) 7-M.Wright 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 26 for 9 yards (81-J.Deguara).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.76 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (26-A.Johnson).