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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model