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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model