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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (26-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.76 EP