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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 53

Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -2.02 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model