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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🥶 Cold Spread 10.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CHI
22.0%
GB
78.0%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.198 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.029 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: +0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

CHI 17
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CHI

Elijah Hicks S Questionable Ankle
Travis Homer RB Questionable Hamstring
Teven Jenkins G Questionable Calf

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Out Knee
Zayne Anderson S Out Concussion
Andre Dillard T Out Concussion
Quay Walker LB Out Ankle
Evan Williams S Out Quadricep
Romeo Doubs WR Questionable Illness
Brenton Cox DE Questionable Foot
Christian Watson WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 24
–
GB 22

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:52 TD CHI (6:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 39-J.Blackwell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 02:28 FG GB (2:28) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CHI 7 – GB 3
  • Q2 14:20 TD CHI (14:20) 4-D.Swift up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – GB 3
  • Q2 11:17 TD GB (11:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – GB 9
  • Q2 02:00 FG GB (2:00) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CHI 14 – GB 13
  • Q4 10:11 TD CHI (10:11) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – GB 13
  • Q4 04:35 TD GB (4:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson right guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – GB 19
  • Q4 00:58 FG GB (:58) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CHI 21 – GB 22
  • Q4 00:02 FG CHI (:02) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 24 – GB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:10) 42-M.Orzech to GB 20 for -15 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-19-D.Whelan at GB 17. 19-D.Whelan punts 35 yards to CHI 30, downed by GB-22-R.Rochell.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to GB 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-J.Reed to GB 40 for 16 yards (46-S.Daly).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 40%

    (6:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 39-J.Blackwell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (2:28) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to GB 27, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 20%

    (7:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (2:00) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 37%

    (:37) 19-T.Taylor punts 34 yards to GB 11, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 35%

    (11:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to GB 40 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 43%

    (4:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 27 yards to GB 16, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 59%

    (15:00) 11-J.Reed left end pushed ob at CHI 39 for -2 yards (32-T.Smith).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to GB 49, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 59%

    (:58) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.