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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 12

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP