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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 45

Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(:37) 19-T.Taylor punts 34 yards to GB 11, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.52 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model