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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 46

Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 23-R.Johnson to GB 40 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model