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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 43

Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 27 yards to GB 16, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model