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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-J.Reed left end pushed ob at CHI 39 for -2 yards (32-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model