4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.10 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 19, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP