Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 85

Chicago Bears 21 – Green Bay Packers 13

(6:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to GB 49, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.10 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model