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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 19 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(:58) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.06 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model