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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.23 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model