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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (97-Ca.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model