CIN @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC Zac Taylor

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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin

Saturday 2025-01-04 · 20:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌨 Snow Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN

61.6%

PIT

38.4%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CIN offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
PIT offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.182 EPA/dropback in prior starts
PIT defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
PIT on 3 more days rest than CIN
CIN defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 25

–

PIT 20

Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CIN

Jermaine Burton WR Out Not injury related - other

Sam Hubbard DE Out Knee

Chase Brown RB Questionable Ankle

Amarius Mims T Questionable Ankle

Drew Sample TE Questionable Groin

Tee Higgins WR Questionable Ankle

Charlie Jones WR Questionable Groin

Cam Taylor-Britt CB Questionable Ankle

PIT

Roman Wilson WR Out Hamstring

Cole Holcomb LB Out Knee

Logan Lee DE Out Calf

Donte Jackson CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 19

–

PIT 17

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:53 TD CIN (9:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – PIT 0
Q1 01:29 FG CIN (1:29) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 10 – PIT 0
Q2 09:57 TD PIT (9:57) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – PIT 6
Q2 00:18 FG CIN (:18) 3-C.York 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 13 – PIT 7
Q3 07:01 FG CIN (7:01) 3-C.York 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 16 – PIT 7
Q4 11:06 FG CIN (11:06) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. ** Injury Update: CIN-61-C.Ford has returned to the game. CIN 19 – PIT 7
Q4 08:12 TD PIT (8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – PIT 13
Q4 02:44 FG PIT (2:44) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. CIN 19 – PIT 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 16 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(7:58) 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-I.Williams to CIN 33 for 6 yards (93-M.Robinson).
Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

(1:29) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 62%

(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (97-Ca.Heyward).
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP

p(convert) 53%

(5:39) 8-C.Waitman to PIT 31 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PIT 32. 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CIN 16, out of bounds.
Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(2:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to PIT 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 31 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward). FUMBLES (50-S.Heyward), RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at PIT 33.
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 63

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71%

(:49) 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 38 for 1 yard (29-C.Taylor-Britt, 57-G.Pratt). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 37 for no gain (29-C.Taylor-Britt, 57-G.Pratt).
Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

(:18) 3-C.York 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(13:36) 8-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-I.Williams to CIN 36 for 18 yards (15-B.Skowronek).
Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

(7:01) 3-C.York 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(4:43) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek.
Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

(11:06) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. ** Injury Update: CIN-61-C.Ford has returned to the game.
Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(6:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to PIT 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 11 for 3 yards (38-D.Ivey).
Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 80

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP

p(convert) 73%

(5:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 38-D.Ivey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-83-Co.Heyward at CIN 38.
Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 36 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 64%

(2:44) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 60 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to PIT 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 6 yards (48-C.Adomitis).
Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 60 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 31%

(:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth.