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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:49) 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 38 for 1 yard (29-C.Taylor-Britt, 57-G.Pratt). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 37 for no gain (29-C.Taylor-Britt, 57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model