Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

(13:36) 8-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-I.Williams to CIN 36 for 18 yards (15-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model