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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model