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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 5

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. ** Injury Update: CIN-61-C.Ford has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP