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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 19

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 38-D.Ivey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-83-Co.Heyward at CIN 38.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.77 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP