4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 19

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.77 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model