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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 19

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.42 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -0.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP