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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 31 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 26 for 9 yards (51-C.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model