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HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

HOU
45.1%
TEN
54.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU): -0.098 EPA/dropback in prior starts (HOU starting Davis Mills in place of C.J. Stroud)
  • TEN offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • HOU on 4 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

HOU

Denico Autry DE Out Knee
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Ankle
Shaquille Mason G Out Knee
Jeff Okudah CB Out Concussion
Christian Harris LB Questionable Ankle
Jamal Hill LB Questionable Hamstring

TEN

Tyler Boyd WR Out Foot
Jaelyn Duncan T Out Shoulder
Nick Folk K Out Abdomen
Amani Hooker S Out Shoulder
Arden Key LB Out Hand
Otis Reese LB Out Ankle
Tyjae Spears RB Out Concussion
Colton Dowell WR Out Knee
Chigoziem Okonkwo TE Questionable Abdomen
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23
–
TEN 14

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:47 TD HOU (7:47) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 14:07 TD HOU (14:07) 31-D.Pierce right guard for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – TEN 0
  • Q2 01:45 FG TEN (1:45) 7-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. HOU 13 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 16 – TEN 3
  • Q3 06:51 FG TEN (6:51) 7-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. HOU 16 – TEN 6
  • Q4 14:00 TD HOU (14:00) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at TEN 36. 95-D.Barnett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 22 – TEN 6
  • Q4 02:49 TD TEN (2:49) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle to 18-T.Martin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – TEN 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:41) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-D.Johnson to HOU 17 for no gain (26-J.Hardee).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-J.Hardee.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (12:24) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 31 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 26 for 9 yards (51-C.Gray).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:51) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 27 for 11 yards (13-D.Phillips). PENALTY on TEN-39-D.Baker, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-51-C.Gray. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 41.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

    (1:45) 7-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:49) 11-M.Rudolph scrambles right end to TEN 41 for 5 yards (29-M.Stewart).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (6:51) 7-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (1:22) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 19-X.Hutchinson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 54%

    (11:27) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 80-B.Oliver [95-D.Barnett].

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 22%

    (9:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. Penalty on TEN-51-C.Gray, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on HOU-87-C.Stover, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-B.Oliver.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (5:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-25-R.Yeast.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:46) 20-T.Pollard right end pushed ob at TEN 35 for 5 yards (29-M.Stewart).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (1:14) 10-D.Mills up the middle to TEN 14 for 3 yards (97-J.Lynch).