Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- HOU offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- TEN defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- Davis Mills (HOU): -0.098 EPA/dropback in prior starts (HOU starting Davis Mills in place of C.J. Stroud)
- TEN offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- HOU on 4 more days rest than TEN
- HOU defense: -0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 18
HOU
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:47 TD HOU (7:47) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – TEN 0
- Q2 14:07 TD HOU (14:07) 31-D.Pierce right guard for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – TEN 0
- Q2 01:45 FG TEN (1:45) 7-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. HOU 13 – TEN 3
- Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 16 – TEN 3
- Q3 06:51 FG TEN (6:51) 7-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. HOU 16 – TEN 6
- Q4 14:00 TD HOU (14:00) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at TEN 36. 95-D.Barnett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 22 – TEN 6
- Q4 02:49 TD TEN (2:49) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle to 18-T.Martin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – TEN 12
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:41) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-D.Johnson to HOU 17 for no gain (26-J.Hardee).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 61%
(1:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-J.Hardee.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%
(12:24) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 31 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 26 for 9 yards (51-C.Gray).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(10:51) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 27 for 11 yards (13-D.Phillips). PENALTY on TEN-39-D.Baker, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(9:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-51-C.Gray. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 41.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%
(1:45) 7-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(12:49) 11-M.Rudolph scrambles right end to TEN 41 for 5 yards (29-M.Stewart).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%
(6:51) 7-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(1:22) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 19-X.Hutchinson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 54%
(11:27) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 80-B.Oliver [95-D.Barnett].
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 22%
(9:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. Penalty on TEN-51-C.Gray, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on HOU-87-C.Stover, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(8:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-B.Oliver.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%
(5:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-25-R.Yeast.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 70 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(3:46) 20-T.Pollard right end pushed ob at TEN 35 for 5 yards (29-M.Stewart).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%
(1:14) 10-D.Mills up the middle to TEN 14 for 3 yards (97-J.Lynch).
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