4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 86

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-51-C.Gray. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 86, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model