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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 7-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model