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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 53

Houston Texans 23 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. Penalty on TEN-51-C.Gray, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on HOU-87-C.Stover, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.98 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP