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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 20-T.Pollard right end pushed ob at TEN 35 for 5 yards (29-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.11 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model