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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 38

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle to KC 36 for 2 yards (90-C.Omenihu).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.61 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model