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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🥶 Cold Spread 10.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

KC
44.0%
DEN
56.0%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.110 vs Carson Wentz (KC) -0.091 EPA/dropback (KC starting Carson Wentz in place of Patrick Mahomes)
  • DEN offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

KC 22
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

KC

Isiah Pacheco RB Out Rib
Jawaan Taylor T Out Knee
Mecole Hardman WR Out Knee
Jaylen Watson CB Out Ankle
Chris Jones DT Doubtful Calf
Nick Bolton LB Doubtful Not injury related - other
Kareem Hunt RB Doubtful Coaching Decision
George Karlaftis DE Doubtful Coaching Decision
Travis Kelce TE Doubtful Coaching Decision
Justin Reid S Doubtful Coaching Decision
Drue Tranquill LB Doubtful Coaching Decision
Patrick Mahomes QB Doubtful Ankle
Trent McDuffie CB Doubtful Knee

DEN

Frank Crum T Out Illness
Tyler Badie RB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 0
–
DEN 38

Prediction missed by 37 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:04 TD DEN (12:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 04:59 TD DEN (4:59) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DEN 13
  • Q2 06:54 TD DEN (6:54) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DEN 20
  • Q2 00:06 FG DEN (:06) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. KC 0 – DEN 24
  • Q3 02:54 TD DEN (2:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DEN 30
  • Q4 09:43 TD DEN (9:43) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 23-A.Estime right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DEN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:54) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 40 for 1 yard (94-M.Herring).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:58) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 62%

    (11:15) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle to KC 36 for 2 yards (90-C.Omenihu).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 67%

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 34-S.Perine pushed ob at DEN 23 for 13 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 20 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 74%

    (1:08) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:55) 14-M.Araiza punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 32 for 4 yards (20-M.Burton).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:11) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 52%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at DEN 49 for -7 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:22) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.