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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.90 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model