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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 38

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model