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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP