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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 61

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:54) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 40 for 1 yard (94-M.Herring).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model