4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LAC
56.4%
LV
43.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
LV 21
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

LAC

Gus Edwards RB Out Ankle
Josh Palmer WR Out Foot
Denzel Perryman LB Doubtful Groin
Alohi Gilman S Questionable Hamstring

LV

Ameer Abdullah RB Out Foot
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Illness
Jordan Meredith G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 34
–
LV 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:50 FG LV (2:50) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 0 – LV 3
  • Q1 00:14 FG LAC (:14) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – LV 3
  • Q2 13:09 TD LV (13:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – LV 9
  • Q2 05:32 FG LAC (5:32) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – LV 10
  • Q2 01:10 FG LAC (1:10) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 9 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:14 TD LAC (:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-D.Chark for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 15 – LV 10
  • Q3 07:13 FG LAC (7:13) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 20 – LV 10
  • Q3 02:20 FG LV (2:20) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 20 – LV 13
  • Q4 13:36 TD LAC (13:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-W.Dissly for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Snowden]. LAC 26 – LV 13
  • Q4 03:43 TD LAC (3:43) 62-S.Mustipher reported in as eligible. 28-H.Haskins right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 33 – LV 13
  • Q4 00:30 TD LV (:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 34 – LV 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:04) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:56) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 12-D.Davis to LAC 12 for no gain (34-T.Harper).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 76%

    (5:08) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 91%

    (2:50) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (:14) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 64%

    (10:15) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LV 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (5:32) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:05) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 17 for 10 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (1:10) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:13) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (2:20) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (10:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Bowers (3-D.James).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 61%

    (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 11-T.Tucker to LAC 29 for 11 yards (29-T.Still).