4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.47 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model