4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 64

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to MIN 8, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-B.Powell to MIN 14 for 6 yards (49-H.Hatten).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model