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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2025-01-05 · 20:20 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 56.5

Win Probability

MIN
37.0%
DET
63.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.226 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.403 vs Sam Darnold (MIN) +0.121 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 24
–
DET 27
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

MIN

Patrick Jones DE Out Knee
Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Questionable Illness
Fabian Moreau CB Questionable Hip

DET

David Montgomery RB Out Knee
Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Illness
Craig Reynolds RB Questionable Back
Alex Anzalone LB Questionable Forearm
Kalif Raymond WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 9
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:49 TD DET (1:49) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 06:38 FG MIN (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – DET 7
  • Q2 00:24 FG MIN (:24) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 00:02 FG DET (:02) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 6 – DET 10
  • Q3 10:00 FG MIN (10:00) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 9 – DET 10
  • Q3 02:33 TD DET (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – DET 16
  • Q4 13:12 TD DET (13:12) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – DET 23
  • Q4 05:20 TD DET (5:20) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – DET 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:10) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to MIN 8, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-B.Powell to MIN 14 for 6 yards (49-H.Hatten).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:12) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to DET 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 14 yards (30-C.Ham).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 64%

    (2:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 9-Ja.Williams pushed ob at MIN 25 for 14 yards (2-S.Gilmore) [44-J.Metellus].

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:07) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DET 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for no gain (26-Th.Jackson; 20-Jy.Ward).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 56%

    (3:42) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 9-Ja.Williams (90-J.Bullard).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (:24) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Addison (0-T.Arnold).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%

    (10:00) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 97%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 75%

    (:28) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:23) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 26 for 9 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep middle to 83-J.Nailor [99-Z.Smith].

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (:33) 13-C.Reynolds left end to MIN 23 for 5 yards (0-I.Pace; 97-H.Phillips).