4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep middle to 83-J.Nailor [99-Z.Smith].

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.80 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP